28 maj Relativt lugn dag i Ukraina, men det börjar hetta till i Georgien

Idag har varit relativt lugnt, vissa strider har rapporterats från Donetsk och Logansk, men i det stora hela verkar det varit ganska lugnt. Det har dock börjat röra sig i Georgien, där det i Abchazien varit stora demonstrationer mot korruption. Presidenten i Abchazien fick fly in på en rysk militärbas. Kommer vi få se ett nytt uppror likt det i Kiev?

Försvarsmakten kom idag med sitt förslag på hur organisationen ska se ut efter 2018 då man skall ha 500 miljoner mindre i lönekostnader (RB5).





” — An uneasy calm appears to have returned to the eastern Ukrainian city of Donetsk one day after dozens of pro-Russian separatist fighters were reported killed in fighting with government forces.

— Poland’s Foreign Ministry says that a Polish Catholic priest, Pawel Witek, who was abducted in Donetsk on May 27, has been released.

— European Union leaders have praised Ukraine’s presidential election and vowed to support the country’s new leader, Petro Poroshenko.

— There is still no news on the whereabouts of a team of OSCE monitors who have been missing since May 26 while on patrol east of Donetsk.

— Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov says he has not sent any troops to fight alongside pro-Russian insurgents in eastern Ukraine. His remarks were in apparent response to footage broadcast from Donetsk by CNN in which rebel fighters claimed they were from Kadyrov’s security forces.”


Donbass Battalion Commander Warns of Danger of Failing to Press Hard Against Separatists

“Semyon Semyonchenko, commander of the volunteer Donbass Battalion, has written a response to reports that the separatists are fleeing or retreating on his Facebook page (translated by The Interpreter):

First, some facts: there is a periodical rotation of terrorist groups. Groups are drawn up from the towns and sent on trips to camps (former childrens’ camps in the Lugansk and Donetsk oblasts). There, training is conducted by the DPR militia yobs and groups of militants are churned out.

Groups periodically withdraw to the Russian Federation. The border is not locked down. Weapons and mercenaries are being brought in from neighbouring territory. Each day, up to 15 people infiltrate the Novoazovsk district alone.

The main separatist shock force is currently made up of former Crimean Alpha personnel, Berkut, and Chechen fighters. The DPR militia is in the transition stage between the ”red guards” and the ”red army”. If the terrorists are given enough time to fool people and put an army together, (they already have BTRs, anti-aircraft guns, light and heavy small arms in service), then it will not end tomorrow – they will take as much as we give.

Secondly, you can’t win without having built a modern army and intelligence services, you can only come to an agreement. We must not bargain, we can’t conserve this ulcer for years. I’m not just talking about Donbass now, but also about corruption, ineffective government, theft, irresponsibility and incompetence, about everything that sucks all the juice out of our country. But if, or rather when we win, will will get a chance to rapidly build a brand new, effective state. If we bargain with them, we will rot futher, leaving our children in place of us to see the results of endless ”reform”.”


‘Prime Minister’ of Self-Declared ‘People’s Republic of Donetsk’ Admits Chechens and Ossetians Fighting in Ukraine

“Tweets from journalists at a press meeting called by Aleksandr Borodai, the self-proclaimed ‘prime minister’ of the ‘Donetsk People’s Republic’, report that Borodai has admitted to the presence of Chechen fighters in Ukraine.


Of course, it must be noted that Borodai himself is a Russian citizen.


Sanctions Won’t Change Putin, But May Change His Elites’ Support

“The evidence that sanctions change a state’s policies is slim. Actually it’s very slim. Economic sanctions taken by themselves have rarely produced the outcomes with which they were designed to produce. The main reason is that the global economy is so diverse, so spread out, that it is almost impossible to create an overarching and effective sanctions regime that is mostly adhered to by the world’s political actors. Even in the case of Iran, the most recently cited example of economic sanctions bringing about desired outcomes—at least initially by getting Iran to the negotiating table—is not universally agreed upon by experts that sanctions were the cause. That’s why when seemingly the only response to Putin invading Crimea and instigating anarchy in Ukraine (along with threatening to invade by massing troops on the border) was sanctions; it was seen as a weak and hollow response.

And to some degree they are. Sanctions, no matter how coordinated between the EU and the U.S., will not dissuade Putin or change his calculus, especially as he is increasingly operating with a more idealistic worldview, guided by an moralistic and messianic mission. That is why no amount of opprobrium or threatening of sanctions will stop Putin in Ukraine—or in any region that is deemed to be Russia’s sphere of influence. But they never should have been viewed in isolation. They are merely one part of a multi-faceted approach to increase the costs of actions, and to alter the future calculus of similar thinking. The use of targeted sanctions to increase the costs—both immediately and cumulatively—are meant to be utilized in coordination with diplomatic and political support; in this case to the interim government in Kiev. The key is that sanctions have to be targeted and specifically crafted to increase maximum impact instead of industry wide sanctions which will fail in their purpose and only serve to increase Putin’s support (the latest calls by several senators to cancel a deal with Russian arms exporter Rosoboronexport to provide helicopters to the nascent Afghan air force is just one example of the farcical calls for widespread sanctions that will serve to only hurt the Afghans and the ability of the U.S. to leave a sustainable Afghan government.)” Läs hela artikeln på http://www.interpretermag.com/sanctions-wont-change-putin-but-may-change-his-elites-support/

Kremlin Will Be in Trouble if It Tries to Take Away Anything Russians Assume is Rightfully Theirs, Gudkov Says

“Russians are now far more concerned about defending what they have than in getting something better, Lev Gudkov says. Consequently, if the Kremlin does try to take away something the majority thinks is rightfully theirs, such a step would almost certainly put the survival of the current regime at risk whatever the polls now say.

In the course of a wide-ranging conversation between the director of the Levada Center and economist Vladislav Inozemtsev, both Moscow experts offer some remarkable insights into where Russian society now is, why it is in that condition, and how its relations with the powers that be have changed.

Gudkov suggests that since 2011, the idea of “the good tsar and the bad boyars” in which Russians look to their leader with hope and blame their problems on the bureaucracy has ”ceased to work. An increasing share of the population blames President Vladimir Putin for their problems, considers him guilty of corruption, and is prepared to hold him responsible.

That means, he continues, that if Putin takes any steps that threaten the well-being of a large part of the population, steps like raising the pension age or requiring more payments for health care, both of which could happen, then the Russian leader could find his support in the population collapse just as Yeltsin did in the 1990s.

“For the majority of people,” Gudkov says, “what is important are not plans for improvement but rather the preservation of what is and an avoidance of things getting worse. If the authorities take something away that people consider untouchable, then it could happen” that the authority of those in power could be seriously shaken.

Underlying that pattern, the sociologist adds, is the “very slow dissolution of the Soviet distribution system and of the consciousness that he authorities must take care of people,” at least to some minimum standard. Everyone knows that the [authorities] will not make people happy or rich,” but they must do that or else stresses in society will grow.” Läs hela artikeln på http://www.interpretermag.com/kremlin-will-be-in-trouble-if-it-tries-to-take-away-anything-russians-assume-is-rightfully-theirs-gudkov-says/

The Moscow Times: Ferocity of Ukraine Clashes Increases Risks for Putin

“An army assault on pro-Russian rebels in east Ukraine will not have taken Vladimir Putin by surprise, but the ferocity of the clashes may have — and could be a game-changer if they spin out of control.

In the last two weeks, with Western sanctions starting to bite, the Russian president has softened his tone against the pro-European leadership in Kiev and promised to pull troops back from the frontier with Ukraine.

The likelihood of Russian forces pouring into east Ukraine to capture mainly Russian-speaking areas has receded, and Putin appears to have settled for the gains he has made so far in the worst East-West standoff since the Cold War.

But Putin’s careful planning could quickly unravel under one circumstance — if a large number of civilians are killed in a single incident, putting public pressure on him to send in the army to protect Russian speakers.

The deaths of more than 50 pro-Russian separatists in a Ukrainian army assault may not be that moment, but it underlines the dangers inherent in Putin’s strategy.

”Sticking by the sidelines and doing nothing will risk a public backlash at home, of leaving ethnic Russians in Ukraine to the mercy of the administration in Kiev,” Ukraine analyst Tim Ash said.

But, he said, ”formal intervention by Russia will now risk new, more sanctions from the West on Russia.”

Putin seems, at least for now, to have rejected the option of sending in the army, but has opened a Pandora’s Box by whipping up nationalist sentiment over Ukraine.

”If bombing or shelling led to a new situation where many citizens were killed, his options could be a military strike from the air or an overland invasion,” Dmitry Trenin, head of the Carnegie Moscow Center think-tank, said before the assault.

”This is not Putin’s intention, but he could not sit astride the border and just watch the Ukrainian military crushing a town,” he said.” Läs hela artikeln på http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/ferocity-of-ukraine-clashes-increases-risks-for-putin/501044.html

Oroligheter i Georgien

The Moscow Times: Moscow Steps In as Arbiter in Abkhaz Conflict

“In the direct aftermath of a political uprising that threatened to destabilize Abkhazia, Russia demonstrated its role as the ultimate arbiter of political life in the small breakaway province of Georgia.

Presidential aide Vladislav Surkov met on Wednesday with both sides of a conflict that saw between 1,000 and 5,000 protesters storm the presidential administration building in Sukhumi on Tuesday evening.

Abkhaz President Alexander Ankvab was forced to seek refuge in a Russian military base in the town of Gudauta after demonstrators demanded that he and his government step down over accusations of rampant corruption, widespread crime and poor handling of the economy.

Surkov met first with Ankvab on Wednesday before meeting with members of the opposition, including Raul Khadzhimba, the former Abkhaz premier and vice president that led Tuesday’s uprising.

Khadzhimba and fellow opposition member Sergei Shamba, with whom Surkov also met, said that the negotiations had been ”reassuring,” and that ”the Russian side behaved in a very delicate way,” Interfax reported.

While the outcome of Surkov’s meeting with Ankvab was unknown at the time of writing, Surkov planned to meet with members of the Abkhaz Security Council later Wednesday evening.

”Ankvab was accused of siphoning off large sums of money from the Russian aid package,” said Izida Chania, chief editor of local newspaper Nuzhnaya Gazeta, who was present on the scene. Russia supplies Abkhazia with 1 billion rubles ($29 million) in aid annually.” Läs hela artikeln på http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/moscow-steps-in-as-arbiter-in-abkhaz-conflict/501098.html

‘Donetsk Disease’ Spreads to Abkhazia

”In what the Kremlin is likely to see as the most disturbing blowback of its backing of the Donetsk separatists in Ukraine, a group of veterans of the Georgian-Abkhaz war have stormed a government building in Sukhumi and demanded the resignation of that breakaway republic’s president, an indication of how easily “the Donetsk disease” can spread.

The Abkhaz opposition has been demanding a crackdown on corruption and the departure of the Abkhazian president for several months without success. On 6 May, opposition leaders said they would organize “an all-people assembly” if Aleksandr Ankvab did not agree. He didn’t and yesterday, that assembly of several thousand people met.

But it didn’t stay entirely peaceful. Some activists agreed to meet with Ankvab but others attempted to forcibly break into the government building, breaking windows and doors in the process. Ankvab for his part fled, and the crisis continues even though the president has agreed to disband the council of ministers, fire the procurator and dismiss three district heads.

Encouraged by Ankvab’s retreat, the demonstrators who grew in number to “about 5,000” according to news reports demanded the convention of an extraordinary session of the republic parliament. One opposition leader announced that the Coordinating Council of Opposition Parties would take over “the temporary leadership of the republic and form all necessary structures.” Läs hela artikeln på http://www.interpretermag.com/donetsk-disease-spreads-to-abkhazia/

The Moscow Times: Donetsk Miners Rally in Favor of Separatists in Eastern Ukraine

“Up to 1,000 coal miners rallied on Wednesday in support of armed pro-Russian separatists who are battling Ukrainian forces in defense of their self-proclaimed ”Donetsk People’s Republic,” or DNR, in eastern Ukraine.

A day after Kiev unleashed warplanes and paratroopers against the separatists in a major offensive that killed at least 50 rebels, the miners marched through Donetsk city center to demand the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the region.

There were no reports of fresh clashes on Wednesday, but local residents reported a burst of gunfire coming from the area of the regional state security service building which is occupied by separatists.

”Kiev does not rule us any more, we will no longer accept that,” separatist leader Denis Pushilin told the miners, who had been bussed in from around the Donbass coalfield, as a Ukrainian fighter jet roared overhead.

The protesters, from Ukraine’s largest mine workers’ union, waved DNR flags and banners that read ”We will revive the power of the Donbass.” The Donbass, comprising coal mines and steel mills, is Ukraine’s industrial heartland.

”I want peace and to be able to work and make money. I want the occupying soldiers to leave and return to their Kiev junta,” said Valery, who works at the state-owned Abakumova mine.

He said the miners backed the DNR, which was declared after a makeshift referendum on May 11 condemned by Kiev and the West.” Läs hela artikeln på http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/donetsk-miners-rally-in-favor-of-separatists-in-eastern-ukraine/501043.html

Ministry of Defence of Ukraine: Ukraine’s Government approves Draft Agreement on establishing the Joint Polish-Lithuanian-Ukrainian brigade

“Colonel General Mykhaylo Koval, Minister of Defense of Ukraine, announced this decision after the Session of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine.

“This decision is very important for us as the units of both countries which will be the part of the brigade, I mean Poland and Lithuania, are the NATO nations. We’ll train our component within the NATO standards: they know enough to teach us”, Colonel General Mykhaylo Koval remarked.

It is estimated the agreement to be signed within a month. The Ukrainian component of the brigade will be deployed at the International Peacekeeping and Security Center in Lviv oblast.” http://www.mil.gov.ua/index.php?lang=en&part=news&sub=read&id=35047

Försvarsmakten: Försvarsmaktens förslag på ny organisation

” I dag har Försvarsmakten lämnat ett förslag till regeringen på hur organisationen ska se ut efter 2018. I förslaget redovisas Försvarsmaktens planering för att lösa den av regeringen ställda uppgiften (RB 5) om lönekostnadsminskningar med 500 miljoner kronor 2019. Förslaget innehåller också Försvarsmaktens egna reduceringar mot sedan tidigare planerade personalvolymer.

Det inlämnade underlaget beskriver således både Försvarsmaktens fattade beslut om anpassningar av organisationen med hänsyn till tillgänglig ekonomi och regeringsbeslutet angående minskning av planerade lönekostnader. Detta innebär reduceringar av cirka 2 300 heltidsbefattningar, kontinuerligt tjänstgörande, av vilka cirka hälften i dag saknar bemanning. Av de borttagna befattningarna utgör ungefär hälften Försvarsmaktens egna rationaliseringar.

De negativa konsekvenserna är i redovisningen så omfattande att Försvarsmakten menar att dessa i praktiken motverkar den påbörjade försvarsreformen. Mot denna bakgrund föreslår Försvarsmakten att lönekostnadsreduktionen begränsas. Försvarsmaktens förslag begränsar reduktionen till att omfatta cirka 225 miljoner kronor 2019. Detta förslag benämns FM Org 18.

Försvarsmaktens egna rationaliseringsbeting, utifrån statsmakternas generella effektiviseringskrav, genomförs samtidigt i sin helhet. Sammantaget bedöms detta medföra kännbara produktionsmässiga och operativa konsekvenser. Inriktningen av Försvarsmaktens eget förslag till en ny organisation, FM Org 18, har varit att fullfölja det gällande försvarsbeslutet och så långt som möjligt bygga en insatsorganisation med moderna, gripbara och användbara förband. Förändringen från nuvarande organisation kan sammanfattas i fem större strukturella områden:

– arméförbanden organiseras i brigadstruktur där stridsvagnskompanierna inordnas i de mekaniserade bataljonerna,

– marinförbanden omorganiserar Marinbasen samt ökar andelen tidvis tjänstgörande personal. Amfibiebataljonen inriktas därutöver mot sjöoperativ förmåga,

– flygvapenförbanden bildar fem flottiljstrukturer (av dagens flygflottiljer, helikopterflottilj och luftstridsskola) och nya krigsförband,

– lednings- och underrättelseförband inrättar FMTIS för ökad rationalitet.

– logistikförbanden krigsorganiserar FMLOG och organiseras för att stödja arméförband i brigadstruktur.

i arbetet med att reducera antalet befattningar i Försvarsmakten har krigsförbanden varit prioriterade. Efter noggrann analys förordar Försvarsmakten ändå att den rörliga operativa ledningen (ROL) i Enköping avvecklas. Dessutom läggs Marinens musikkår ned för att på så sätt undvika att ett ännu större ingrepp i insatsorganisationen görs. Försvarsmakten föreslår även att lönekontoret i Boden läggs ner då det administrativa systemet Palasso har ersatts av Prio som effektiviserar arbetsrutinerna.” http://www.forsvarsmakten.se/sv/aktuellt/2014/05/forsvarsmaktens-forslag-pa-ny-organisation/

Ladda ned förslaget i sin helhet och dess bilagor på http://www.forsvarsmakten.se/sv/aktuellt/2014/05/forsvarsmaktens-forslag-pa-ny-organisation/

SvD Sparkrav hot mot stärkt försvar

” Regeringens sparkrav på försvaret gör det omöjligt att stärka försvarsförmågan – tvärt emot vad alla riksdagens partier vill. Den skarpa varningen kommer från Försvarsmakten.

Varken Ukraina-krisen eller vallöften om mera pengar till försvaret har rubbat regeringens sparbeting för försvaret. Enligt Regeringsbeslut 5 från den 14 mars 2013 så ska Försvarsmakten minska sina fasta personalkostnader med 500 miljoner kronor per år till år 2019.

I Försvarsberedningens rapport den 15 maj, enades alla partier om ett starkare försvar. Men på onsdagen kom Försvarsmaktens svar till försvarsdepartementet som visar att alliansregeringens krav på personalminskningar får motsatt effekt. Läs hela Mikael Holmströms analys på http://www.svd.se/nyheter/inrikes/svart-att-enas-om-pengar-till-forsvaret_3560956.svd?sidan=10

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